Trading Calculators

Win rate + R/R → optimal bet fraction via Kelly formula

Win Rate (%)

Probability of winning

Profit % — When Win

Target profit %

Loss % — When Lose

Stop-loss %

Initial Capital (USDT)

For amount calc

Risk/Reward (R)2.00

Edge per Trade+3.25%

Breakeven Win Rate33.3%

Mathematically Optimal

Leverage

Full Kelly f*

650.0%

6.50x

Fraction of Capital

Win+65.00% (+6,500)

Loss-32.50% (-3,250)

Position Value65,000 USDT

Theoretical value maximizing long-term compound growth. High variance, not recommended in practice.

Practical Recommended

Leverage

Half Kelly ½f*

325.0%

3.25x

Fraction of Capital

Win+32.50% (+3,250)

Loss-16.25% (-1,625)

Position Value32,500 USDT

Balance of variance and growth. Used by many professional traders.

Conservative

Quarter Kelly ¼f*

162.5%

1.63x

Fraction of Capital

Win+16.25% (+1,625)

Loss-8.13% (-812.5)

Position Value16,250 USDT

Minimizes loss risk. Prioritizes stable money management.

Compound Growth Curve by Bet Size

X: Fraction of capital per trade · Y: Log compound growth rate per trade (long run)
Peak fraction = Full Kelly. Betting more reduces growth and increases ruin risk.

Full Kelly · Double KellyHalf KellyPositive zone (profit)Negative zone (ruin direction)

Consecutive Loss Simulation

The loss rate includes leverage. Going all-in means losing 5.0% per consecutive loss. Using Kelly sizing reduces actual account loss as shown below.

Remaining = Initial Capital × (1 − entry ratio × loss rate)^N

Loss Streak	All-in 100%	Full Kelly 650.0%	Half Kelly 325.0%	Quarter Kelly 162.5%
1× L-streak	95.0% -5.0% (−500)	67.5% -32.5% (−3,250)	83.7% -16.3% (−1,625)	91.9% -8.1% (−812.5)
2× L-streak	90.3% -9.8% (−975)	45.6% -54.4% (−5,443.75)	70.1% -29.9% (−2,985.94)	84.4% -15.6% (−1,558.98)
3× L-streak	85.7% -14.3% (−1,426.25)	30.8% -69.2% (−6,924.53)	58.7% -41.3% (−4,125.72)	77.6% -22.4% (−2,244.82)
5× L-streak	77.4% -22.6% (−2,262.19)	14.0% -86.0% (−8,598.74)	41.2% -58.8% (−5,879.75)	65.5% -34.5% (−3,453.84)
7× L-streak	69.8% -30.2% (−3,016.63)	6.4% -93.6% (−9,361.55)	28.9% -71.1% (−7,110.03)	55.3% -44.7% (−4,474.37)
10× L-streak	59.9% -40.1% (−4,012.63)	2.0% -98.0% (−9,803.65)	17.0% -83.0% (−8,302.35)	42.9% -57.1% (−5,714.78)

Loss Streak

All-in
100%

Full Kelly
650.0%

Half Kelly
325.0%

Quarter Kelly
162.5%

Account loss per trade

-5.00%

-32.50%

-16.25%

-8.13%

1× L-streak

95.0%

-5.0% (−500)

67.5%

-32.5% (−3,250)

83.7%

-16.3% (−1,625)

91.9%

-8.1% (−812.5)

2× L-streak

90.3%

-9.8% (−975)

45.6%

-54.4% (−5,443.75)

70.1%

-29.9% (−2,985.94)

84.4%

-15.6% (−1,558.98)

3× L-streak

85.7%

-14.3% (−1,426.25)

30.8%

-69.2% (−6,924.53)

58.7%

-41.3% (−4,125.72)

77.6%

-22.4% (−2,244.82)

5× L-streak

77.4%

-22.6% (−2,262.19)

14.0%

-86.0% (−8,598.74)

41.2%

-58.8% (−5,879.75)

65.5%

-34.5% (−3,453.84)

7× L-streak

69.8%

-30.2% (−3,016.63)

6.4%

-93.6% (−9,361.55)

28.9%

-71.1% (−7,110.03)

55.3%

-44.7% (−4,474.37)

10× L-streak

59.9%

-40.1% (−4,012.63)

2.0%

-98.0% (−9,803.65)

17.0%

-83.0% (−8,302.35)

42.9%

-57.1% (−5,714.78)

Remaining capital — 80%+ safe / 60% or below dangerous · All-in applies leverage loss directly

Losing Streak Probability

Based on your win rate, the probability of losing N trades in a row. 55.0%

Formula: P(N losses) = (1 − win rate)^N

Streak Length	Probability	Approx. Frequency
1× L-streak	45.00%	1 in 2.2
2× L-streak	20.25%	1 in 4.9
3× L-streak	9.11%	1 in 11
5× L-streak	1.85%	1 in 54
7× L-streak	0.374%	1 in 268
10× L-streak	0.034%	1 in 2937

e.g., 5% ≈ 1 in 20 · 1% ≈ 1 in 100. Short streaks are common — gather enough samples before concluding your edge is broken.